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991.
Impacts of Cumulus Convective Parameterization Schemes on Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation over China 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3 下载免费PDF全文
By using the Betts-Miller-Janjic, Grell-Devenyi, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus convective parameterization
schemes in theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, long time simulations from 2000 to 2009 are
conducted to investigate the impacts of different cumulus convective parameterization schemes on summer
monsoon precipitation simulation over China. The results show that all the schemes have the capability
to reasonably reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of summer monsoon precipitation and the
corresponding background circulation. The observed north-south shift of monsoon rain belt is also well
simulated by the three schemes. Detailed comparison indicates that the Grell-Devenyi scheme gives a better
performance than the others. Deficiency in simulated water vapor transport is one possible reason for the
precipitation simulation bias. 相似文献
992.
LANG Xianmei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2011,25(5):682-690
In this paper, seasonal prediction of spring dust weather frequency (DWF) in Beijing during 1982-2008 has been performed. First, correlation analyses are conducted to identify antecedent climate signals during last winter that are statistically significantly related to spring DWF in Beijing. Then, a seasonal prediction model of spring DWF in Beijing is established through multivariate linear regression analysis, in which the systematic error between the result of original prediction model and the observation, averaged over the last 10 years, is corrected. In addition, it is found that climate signals occurring synchronously with spring dust weather, particularly meridional wind at 850 hPa over western Mongolian Plateau, are also linked closely to spring DWF in Beijing. As such, statistical and dynamic prediction approaches should be combined to include these synchronous predictors into the prediction model in the real-time operational prediction, so as to further improve the prediction accuracy of spring DWF in Beijing, even over North China. However, realizing such a prediction idea in practice depends essentially on the ability of climate models in predicting key climate signals associated with spring DWF in Beijing. 相似文献
993.
Impact of Cloud Microphysical Processes on the Simulation of Typhoon Rananim near Shore. Part I: Cloud Structure and Precipitation Features 下载免费PDF全文
By using the Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM), the basic structure and cloud features of Typhoon Rananim are simulated and verified against observations. Five sets of experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the cloud microphysical processes on the model cloud structure and precipitation features. The importance of the ice-phase microphysics, the cooling effect related to microphysical characteristics change, and the influence of terminal velocity of graupel are examined. The resu... 相似文献
994.
For a century or so, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been providing temperature forecast for the whole of Hong Kong with
the HKO Headquarters as the reference location. In recent decades, due to spreading of population from the main urban center
to satellite towns, there is an increasing demand for regional temperature forecasts. To support such provision, the HKO has
developed a regression model to provide objective guidance to forecasters in formulating forecasts of maximum and minimum
temperatures for the next day at various locations in Hong Kong. In this paper, the regression model is presented, together
with the assessment of its performance. Based on the verification of one year of forecasts, it is found that the root mean
square errors (RMSEs) of maximum (minimum) temperature forecasts are from about 1.3 to 2.1 (1.1 to 1.4) degrees, respectively.
The regression model is shown to have generally out-performed the operational regional spectral model then operated by HKO.
Regional temperature forecast methods of other meteorological or research centers are also surveyed. Equipped with the regression
model, the HKO has launched an online regional temperature forecast service for the next day in Hong Kong since March 2008. 相似文献
995.
Consuelo Varela-Ortega Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez Christopher H. Swartz Thomas E. Downing 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(2):604-619
In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rural livelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rural livelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide. 相似文献
996.
997.
2011年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2011年3—5月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:三种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之。另外,选取了2011年4月28-30日的沙尘天气个例进行分析,发现日本模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义最好。 相似文献
998.
999.
北京一次冬季回流暴雪天气过程的数值分析 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
回流天气是华北地区冬、春、秋季节产生降雨(雪)的主要天气类型,预报员常常因对回流天气系统结构特征认识不足和诊断失误而导致预报的失败,是降雨(雪)预报的难点和重点。利用北京地区高分辨率快速循环同化中尺度数值预报系统(BJ-RUC)对2010年1月2—3日一次典型的回流暴雪天气过程进行模拟,分析数值模式的模拟能力,研究各层主要影响系统结构特征及形成暴雪的关键性条件,探讨典型回流暴雪天气过程的形成机理。主要结论为:数值模式对此次暴雪过程的近地面回流冷空气、中低层低值系统及变化特征、主要降雪时段和降雪量模拟效果较好,对降雪落区的模拟存在一定偏差。低层回流偏东风遇到地形后引起垂直运动主要在低层800 hPa以下,所产生的降雪量不大,而其与上游850~700 hPa低涡系统发展东移其前部的上升运动汇合所形成的大范围、深厚、强烈的上升运动是产生明显降雪的关键性条件。上游低涡系统前部西南暖湿气流相对应的大湿度区移近是产生较强降雪的重要条件。持续的低层回流冷空气湿度较大,对于低层大气起到水汽输送的作用。回流冷空气使低层大气维持长时间的水汽输送并与其上层东移的大湿度区相结合,增加湿层厚度,有利于降雪持续而形成较强降雪。降雪开始时间和降雪强度的变化与对流层中下转偏南风的时间和偏南风风速增大有关。 相似文献
1000.
2011年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
为更好地应用数值模式中期预报产品,对2011年6—8月T639模式进行天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:三家模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对大尺度环流形势、影响天气系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式稍差,稳定性也不如ECMWF模式。对1109号台风梅花(MUIFA)的路径及强度预报,三家模式的预报效果均不理想,T639模式对"梅花"登陆后的预报与零场较接近,而ECMWF模式及日本模式预报相对较差。 相似文献